Bradley effect
Alex Granados
Nov 04, 2008

I received a comment from a reader asking about the Bradley effect and whether or not I thought it would have an impact on the election in Northern Virginia.

For those of you who don’t know, the Bradley effect is a theory that is supposed to explain the differences between what voters say they are going to do and what they actually do in races where a white and non-white canididate are running against each other.

It is named for Democrat Tom Bradley, a black, long-time mayor of L.A. He ran, in 1982, against Republican George Deukmejian, a white man, for the governorship of California. Polls showed Bradley with a significant lead going into election day, but somehow, he lost. After the election, research showed that fewer white voters picked Bradley than polls projected.

The idea behind the Bradley effect is that white voters may say they will vote for a black candidate because they don’t want to appear racist if they say otherwise. So, if the Bradley effect is true, then polls could show a black candidate leading and then the election could go the other way.

The Bradley effect is another example of why polls should be help in skeptical regard.

Anyway, since Barack Obama, a black man, is running against McCain, a white man, the reader was asking if I thought the Bradley effect would come into play in Northern Virginia.

It is certainly possible, but I doubt it.

There may be some people who view Obama through the prism of race, but I think the majority of people hold him in high, or low, regard for different reasons.

I think people are much more likely to dislike Obama because of his politics, rather than his race. I’m sure these people would not hesitate to tell you that there is no way they are voting for Obama and why.

And those who like Obama’s politics, his message of change or his inspirational rhetoric certainly aren’t going to turn on him.

I think it is only a very few people that would not vote for Obama because of race, and if asked whether or not they are going to vote for him, I think they would say no and give a different excuse as their reason—he is a socialist or hangs with terrorists, or whatever. There have been enough accusations hurled around about Obama that someone who dislikes him for being black can find plenty of other justifications to give pollsters when they come a callin. They would not need to lie about how they’re voting, just about their reasoning.